Project Basma enabled intelligence operations to be cloaked as humanitarian activism, which allowed for covert priming of Syria for regime change. C2FC is using Project Basma’s scheme to attack Ethiopia’s will for survival as a sovereign nation-state, besides priming it for either regime attenuation or regime change. Upcoming narratives will call on rebel coalition to execute regime change so as to stabilize Ethiopia as a Federal Republic, or non-belligerently break it up, while enabling the trial of Abiy Ahmed Ali in an international court.
Ethiopia’s limited use of offensive realism and restricted defensive realism has exposed it to sustained political warfare that is augmented by methods of fourth generation warfare (4GW), key among them being narrative framing, economic strangulation, and coercive diplomacy. Narrative framing has benefitted the TPLF and capacitated it to simultaneously achieve moral victory and spend little resources to inflict prohibitive cost damage on GoE.
Ethiopia is committed to filling GERD and bringing its electricity generation plants online so that it can have exportable power. It is engaged in resource diplomacy, while refusing to show deference to the Biden Administration and Egypt, a nation that fears GERD will turn millions of Egyptians into jobless climate migrants.
Ethiopia must acknowledge that Egypt, with US support, is committed to restricting Ethiopia’s use of the Blue Nile. Similarly, Ethiopia should strive to build a dependable regional alliance through promotion of collective security, as well as exploit political factionalism in the US in awareness that GOP can win the mid-term elections, and the Biden administration can be a one-term presidency.
Ethiopia is being subjected to augmented political warfare that uses information warfare, coercive diplomacy, propaganda war, economic warfare, and kinetic operations to weaken the government and seed domestic uprising. For now, it has forced the government to cede Tigray to a non-state actor.
Offensive realism supports formulation of practical, cost-effective, and stable foreign policies that safeguard the survival and prosperity of nation-states in the 21st century international system.
According to Egypt, Ethiopia must be prevented from developing the Abbay river basin, and this is to be achieved using a combination of hostile diplomacy and instigation of internal instability so that Ethiopian resources are spent on wars rather than hydrological and agricultural developments.