Ethiopia is being isolated in the region. Goodwill that GoE enjoyed in the EAC bloc is starting to thin after an anti-AMISOM twitter campaign by a collective of Ethiopians, Eritreans, and Somalis, preceded a terrorist attack in Dar-es-Salaam by an armed Somali terrorist. If GoE loses EAC’s support, then USG can work with EAC to push GoE to concede to TPLF’s demands, failure to which, GoE will be isolated diplomatically and regionally, and be surrounded by an alliance supportive of TPLF.
In an African nation targeted for regime change, Halliburton’s Brown & Root trained fighters in rebel territory and Bechtel Corporation provided high-resolution satellite data to deployed fighters battling the government. This was the third regime change being pursued by the same USG-backed fighters, and the cumulative death toll due to these regime changes was 8.5 million people killed. Now, the Horn of Africa is the target area for regime change operations.
Ethiopia’s limited use of offensive realism and restricted defensive realism has exposed it to sustained political warfare that is augmented by methods of fourth generation warfare (4GW), key among them being narrative framing, economic strangulation, and coercive diplomacy. Narrative framing has benefitted the TPLF and capacitated it to simultaneously achieve moral victory and spend little resources to inflict prohibitive cost damage on GoE.
Ethiopia is committed to filling GERD and bringing its electricity generation plants online so that it can have exportable power. It is engaged in resource diplomacy, while refusing to show deference to the Biden Administration and Egypt, a nation that fears GERD will turn millions of Egyptians into jobless climate migrants.
Ethiopia must acknowledge that Egypt, with US support, is committed to restricting Ethiopia’s use of the Blue Nile. Similarly, Ethiopia should strive to build a dependable regional alliance through promotion of collective security, as well as exploit political factionalism in the US in awareness that GOP can win the mid-term elections, and the Biden administration can be a one-term presidency.
Ethiopia is being subjected to augmented political warfare that uses information warfare, coercive diplomacy, propaganda war, economic warfare, and kinetic operations to weaken the government and seed domestic uprising. For now, it has forced the government to cede Tigray to a non-state actor.
According to Egypt, Ethiopia must be prevented from developing the Abbay river basin, and this is to be achieved using a combination of hostile diplomacy and instigation of internal instability so that Ethiopian resources are spent on wars rather than hydrological and agricultural developments.
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